{"id":"macro-credit-spreads","category":"macro","title":"Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD) Risk Signal","summary":"High yield vs investment grade spread as the most reliable liquidity and default risk indicator.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":[],"tickers":["HYG","LQD","JNK","IEF","SPY"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"signal_formula":"R_credit = Price(HYG) / Price(LQD) — rising = risk-on, falling = credit stress","interpretation":{"ratio_rising":"Risk-On — investors chasing yield. Expand equity exposure. Sell puts, run the wheel.","ratio_falling":"Risk-Off / Credit Stress — leading indicator of equity downturns. Tighten stops, hedge beta. Reduce position size 50%.","divergence_warning":"HYG falling while SPY still rising = hidden credit stress; equities typically follow within 2-8 weeks"},"thresholds":{"hyg_1m_trend_positive":"Risk-on environment — standard positioning","hyg_1m_trend_negative":"Credit stress — reduce all positions by 25-50%","hyg_ytd_below_4pct":"Credit deterioration — defensive posture only"},"verdict":"Credit spreads are a leading indicator. When HYG diverges negatively from SPY, reduce equity exposure BEFORE the equity market corrects. This is the skill's highest-value signal."}}