{"id":"macro-fed-pivot","category":"macro","title":"Fed Pivot Playbook","summary":"Positioning for when Fed resumes cutting — rate-sensitive sector rotation framework.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Real Estate","Utilities","Financials"],"tickers":["TLT","IEF","O","PLD","EQIX","NEE","SO","JPM","GS"],"regimes":["range_bound","trending_bull"]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"pivot_triggers":["Core CPI sustainably below 2.5% for 2+ consecutive prints — currently 2.6% (March 2026), oil collapse may accelerate","Unemployment rate above 4.5% — currently ~4.1%, labor market still resilient","Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth","Oil price collapse (Iran deal) reducing headline CPI — may be the catalyst that unlocks cuts in H2 2026"],"pivot_winners":{"REITs":"Direct beneficiary — lower cap rates expand valuations; buy PLD, EQIX, WELL","Utilities":"Bond proxy re-rating + lower debt service costs; buy NEE, SO, CEG","Long-duration":"Capital appreciation; TLT, IEF outperform in cut cycles","Small-caps":"More rate-sensitive than large-caps; IWM benefits from lower financing costs"},"pivot_losers":{"Bank NIM":"Deposit spreads compress — watch NIM guidance from JPM, BAC, WFC","Money market cash":"Yields fall; capital rotates from money market to equities"},"pre_pivot_trade":"Start building REITs and Utilities position 1-2 months before expected first cut. Options: buy 3-month call spreads on TLT, XLRE, XLU.","verdict":"Fed pivot is the single most powerful sector rotation catalyst. Position 60-90 days ahead of first expected cut. The trade works best when entering on 'peak hawkishness' — the last hike or prolonged pause."}}