{"id":"macro-geopolitical-risk","category":"macro","title":"Geopolitical Risk Framework","summary":"Middle East, US-China, and Russia-Ukraine risk premium across sectors.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Energy","Industrials","Technology"],"tickers":["XOM","CVX","LMT","RTX","NOC","NVDA","TSM","GLD"],"regimes":["high_vol","trending_bear"]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"active_risks":{"Current":"Elevated tensions and maritime threats in the Strait of Hormuz continue to generate volatility across energy and commodity markets. Concurrently, heightened security developments near the Ukraine-Poland border and global concerns over AI safety keep risk premiums elevated.","US-China":"Technology export controls, Taiwan conflict risk — NVDA/AMD semiconductor revenue caps, TSM single-point-of-failure","Russia-Ukraine":"European energy security, wheat/grain supply chains, continued NATO defense spending impetus"},"geopolitical_spike_playbook":["Buy Gold (GLD) — universal safe-haven in conflict escalation","Buy Defense (LMT, RTX, NOC) — procurement acceleration on any conflict","Buy Oil majors (XOM, CVX) — supply disruption premium","Reduce international revenue exposure (AAPL, NVDA in China tariff scenarios)","Reduce airline, hotel, cruise stocks — travel demand shock"],"de_escalation_playbook":["Sell defense premium positions — currently executing after Iran deal (June 2026)","Sell oil positions and reduce Energy sector exposure — Hormuz reopening removes the key risk premium","Reduce gold position as risk-off premium unwinds — gold corrected from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,200 in this cycle","Buy airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer travel — Hormuz/Middle East de-escalation is the clearest de-escalation trade right now"],"verdict":"Geopolitical risk is binary and timing is unknowable. Maintain 5-10% portfolio in GLD as permanent geopolitical hedge. Overweight defense in any multi-polar tension environment."}}