{"id":"macro-geopolitical-risk","category":"macro","title":"Geopolitical Risk Framework","summary":"Middle East, US-China, and Russia-Ukraine risk premium across sectors.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Energy","Industrials","Technology"],"tickers":["XOM","CVX","LMT","RTX","NOC","NVDA","TSM","GLD"],"regimes":["high_vol","trending_bear"]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"active_risks":{"Current":"Tensions in the Middle East involving Iran continue to present significant risk, keeping energy markets on high alert over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Escalation concerns in the region along with energy security risks remain the primary sources of market risk premiums.","US-China":"Technology export controls, Taiwan conflict risk — NVDA/AMD semiconductor revenue caps, TSM single-point-of-failure","Russia-Ukraine":"European energy security, wheat/grain supply chains, continued NATO defense spending impetus"},"geopolitical_spike_playbook":["Buy Gold (GLD) — universal safe-haven in conflict escalation","Buy Defense (LMT, RTX, NOC) — procurement acceleration on any conflict","Buy Oil majors (XOM, CVX) — supply disruption premium","Reduce international revenue exposure (AAPL, NVDA in China tariff scenarios)","Reduce airline, hotel, cruise stocks — travel demand shock"],"de_escalation_playbook":["Sell defense premium positions — currently executing after Iran deal (June 2026)","Sell oil positions and reduce Energy sector exposure — Hormuz reopening removes the key risk premium","Reduce gold position as risk-off premium unwinds — gold corrected from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,200 in this cycle","Buy airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer travel — Hormuz/Middle East de-escalation is the clearest de-escalation trade right now"],"verdict":"Geopolitical risk is binary and timing is unknowable. Maintain 5-10% portfolio in GLD as permanent geopolitical hedge. Overweight defense in any multi-polar tension environment."}}