{"id":"macro-jobs-market","category":"macro","title":"Labor Market Signal","summary":"NFP and unemployment as the Fed's primary trigger — hot vs cold jobs mean opposite trades.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Consumer Discretionary","Consumer Staples","Financials"],"tickers":["SPY","QQQ","XLY","XLP","XLF"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"current_context":"Unemployment at 4.2% (2026-07). Fed watching closely: hot jobs data delays cuts; cold jobs (NFP below 100K) would be the rate-cut trigger.","hot_jobs_scenario":{"NFP_above_200K":"Inflationary signal — Fed stays higher for longer. Sell rate-sensitive (TLT, REITs). Buy Financials.","wage_growth_above_4pct":"Services inflation stays sticky. Defensive sectors outperform.","unemployment_below_4pct":"Tight labor market — consumer spending holds, but Fed won't cut"},"cold_jobs_scenario":{"NFP_below_100K":"Recession risk rising — buy defensives (XLP, XLV). Reduce cyclicals.","unemployment_above_4dot5pct":"Fed cut catalyst — buy REITs, Utilities, TLT immediately","layoffs_rising":"Consumer discretionary sells off — reduce AMZN, SBUX, NKE"},"key_release":"First Friday of each month at 8:30am ET — high volatility event; reduce open position size day before","verdict":"Jobs report is the most market-moving monthly data point. Hot jobs = stay defensive on rate-sensitive. Cold jobs = position for Fed pivot trade in REITs and Utilities."}}