{"id":"macro-yield-curve","category":"macro","title":"Yield Curve (2s10s) Signal","summary":"2Y-10Y Treasury spread as a leading indicator for recession, credit, and sector rotation.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Financials","Real Estate","Utilities"],"tickers":["TLT","IEF","SHY","JPM","BAC","O","AMT","PLD"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"current_context":"Fed holding at 3.50-3.75%; 10Y Treasury at 4.63%. US inflation cooled significantly in recent data, supporting market expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady. Meanwhile, economic growth remains two-tracked, with AI technology expanding while traditional business sectors show strain.","regimes":{"deep_inversion_below_0bp":"Tight policy, impending slowdown — focus defensive, buy long-duration bonds (TLT), avoid cyclicals","de_inversion_steepening":"Most dangerous phase — recessions start here as short rates drop on Fed emergency cuts; buy VIX, tail hedges","normal_steep_above_50bp":"Economic expansion, healthy credit — risk-on, bull put spreads, buy cyclicals"},"sector_rotation":{"steepening":"Buy Banks (NIM expands), sell Utilities (rate headwind), buy Materials","flattening":"Buy Utilities and REITs (rate-sensitive benefit), sell Banks","inversion":"Buy Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Treasuries; avoid Industrials, Financials"},"key_signal":"10Y Treasury yield relative to 4.0% — below 4.0% = tailwind for rate-sensitive sectors","verdict":"Monitor 2s10s daily. Spread direction matters more than absolute level. De-inversion is the most important risk signal."}}