{"id":"regime-year-end","category":"regime_strategy","title":"Year-End Seasonality Playbook","summary":"Tax-loss harvesting (Nov), Santa rally (Dec), January effect (Jan) — repeatable patterns.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":[],"tickers":[],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":168,"content":{"november_tax_loss":{"pattern":"Institutional selling of biggest annual losers for tax-loss harvesting","strategy":"Short or underweight YTD worst-performing sectors/stocks in November. Cover by Dec 1.","sectors_at_risk":"Whatever has underperformed YTD most — often small-caps, growth, beaten-down sectors"},"december_santa_rally":{"pattern":"Last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January historically positive for SPY","strategy":"Hold core positions, add small long exposure going into Dec 20-31","catalyst":"Window dressing by fund managers buying Q4 winners before year-end statements"},"january_effect":{"pattern":"Small-caps and beaten-down stocks outperform large-caps in early January","strategy":"Rotate into IWM (small-cap ETF) or individual small-cap value stocks in late December","historical_note":"Effect is strongest in years after significant small-cap underperformance"},"verdict":"Seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees — but they repeat often enough to be tradeable. Tax-loss harvesting in November is the most reliable entry for beaten-down names that have solid fundamentals."}}