{"id":"risk-position-sizing","category":"risk_management","title":"Position Sizing Framework","summary":"Regime and health overlays on base 5% per position — the math behind staying in the game.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":[],"tickers":[],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":168,"content":{"base_rules":{"default_per_position":"5% of portfolio — allows 20 positions before exceeding 100%","max_positions":"5-6 simultaneously — beyond this, correlation risk rises sharply","single_stock_absolute":"Never exceed 10% in one position regardless of conviction","max_deployed":"Target 25-30% deployed at any time — preserve optionality"},"regime_overlay":{"trending_bull":"Full 5% per position — up to 6 positions","range_bound":"3-4% per position — up to 5 positions","high_vol":"2-2.5% per position — up to 4 positions","trending_bear":"0% new positions — hold existing with tight stops only"},"health_overlay":{"healthy":"Normal sizing from regime overlay","mixed":"75% of regime sizing","stressed":"50% of regime sizing"},"kelly_note":"Full Kelly criterion over-bets — use 1/4 Kelly or 1/2 Kelly for stable long-term growth. The above rules approximate 1/4 Kelly for typical trading edge.","verdict":"Position sizing is the most important variable in trading outcomes. Being right on direction but wrong on size still loses money in the long run. These rules enforce risk discipline automatically."}}