{"id":"sector-real-estate","category":"sector","title":"Real Estate Sector Context","summary":"K-shaped recovery: data center REITs booming, office structurally impaired.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Real Estate"],"tickers":["PLD","EQIX","AMT","SPG","CCI","O","PSA","AVB","VICI","WELL","DLR","EXR"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":168,"content":{"sector_outlook":"neutral_bull","verdict":"K-shaped sector: data center REITs (EQIX, DLR) and logistics (PLD) structurally strong. Multifamily holding on rent growth. Office structurally impaired — avoid. Refinancing wall (2026-2027 debt maturities) is the key risk. Rate stability unlocking transaction volume.","key_drivers":["AI demand for data center space — hyperscaler leasing creating unprecedented specialized REIT demand","Transaction market thaw — rate pause closing buyer/seller valuation gap","Residential shortage — persistent housing supply deficit supporting multifamily rents"],"key_risks":["Refinancing wall — billions in CRE debt maturing at significantly higher rates than originated","Office structural decline — hybrid work permanently impairs urban office valuations"],"favored_tickers":["PLD","EQIX","WELL"],"cautious_tickers":["SPG","O"],"downstream_impacts":{"FOMC_cut":"Extremely positive — directly lowers cap rates, raises valuations, reduces debt service","FOMC_hike":"Extremely negative — triggers refinancing distress, freezes transaction markets","recession":"Mixed — defensive income but credit stress on leveraged properties"}}}