{"id":"thesis-china-risk","category":"thesis","title":"China Risk and Supply Chain Decoupling","summary":"US-China tension escalation and China economic slowdown — defensive positioning framework.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Technology","Consumer Discretionary","Materials"],"tickers":["AAPL","NVDA","QCOM","NKE","SBUX","TSM","MU","AMAT"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":168,"content":{"thesis":"Escalating US-China technology decoupling and potential Taiwan conflict risk create asymmetric tail risk for companies with high China revenue or Taiwan manufacturing dependencies. Supply chain diversification (India, Vietnam, Mexico) is a multi-year investment theme reducing China concentration.","high_china_exposure_caution":{"AAPL":"~18% revenue from China; manufacturing diversification to India still multi-year process","NVDA":"Export control restrictions limit China revenue — key risk to data center segment","NKE":"Significant China brand exposure — local competitors gaining share (Li Ning, Anta)"},"decoupling_beneficiaries":["Indian IT and manufacturing (Infosys, TCS) capturing supply chain shifts","Mexico nearshoring plays capturing US manufacturing relocation","Vietnam-exposed names in footwear, apparel, electronics assembly"],"risks":["Sudden diplomatic de-escalation — rapid normalization would crush decoupling-premium valuations","Tariff overshoot — aggressive tariffs triggering broader global trade slowdown"],"time_horizon":"2-5 years","conviction":"medium"}}