{"id":"thesis-defense-spending","category":"thesis","title":"Defense Spending Supercycle","summary":"Multipolar geopolitical realignment driving multi-decade NATO and Indo-Pacific procurement growth.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":["Industrials"],"tickers":["LMT","RTX","NOC","GD","AVAV","PLTR","L3H","HII","KTOS"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":336,"content":{"thesis":"Transition from unipolar to multipolar global order has triggered a structural multi-decade defense spending supercycle. NATO allies and Indo-Pacific nations expanding procurement budgets, shifting focus from legacy platforms to autonomous drones, software-defined systems, and missile defense.","primary_beneficiaries":{"LMT":"Dominant prime — F-35, THAAD, hypersonics; multi-year backlog at record levels","AVAV":"Leader in tactical UAV and loitering munitions — capturing asymmetric drone warfare shift","PLTR":"AI-driven command-and-control (JADC2) software — the OS of modern warfare"},"risks":["Budgetary caps — political gridlock or fiscal consolidation curbing procurement growth","Supply chain constraints — rocket motors, propellants, and specialized chips limiting delivery"],"time_horizon":"5-8 years","conviction":"high"}}