{"id":"ticker-tsla","category":"ticker_thesis","title":"Tesla (TSLA) — FSD Optionality vs EV Competition","summary":"FSD and Robotaxi are the long-term value driver; EV manufacturing remains the cash engine.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":[],"tickers":["TSLA"],"regimes":[]},"ttl_hours":336,"content":{"thesis":"TSLA trades as an AI/robotics company. Price ~$359, analyst target ~$390. Tesla debuted its autonomous Cybercab in Austin while accelerating commercial production plans for the Tesla Semi and preparing for an upcoming Roadster demonstration. Robotaxi and Optimus are the long-term value drivers.","bull_case":"Robotaxi network expands beyond initial cities; Optimus humanoid robot moves toward commercial deployment; FSD licensing generates high-margin software revenue","bear_case":"BYD and legacy OEMs closing EV gap; FSD/robotaxi regulatory delays; Elon Musk distraction with political/SpaceX ventures; valuation still requires execution on robotaxi thesis","key_catalysts":["Robotaxi expansion scope and city count","Optimus production and deployment milestones","FSD regulatory approval updates","Megapack delivery volume","China EV market share vs BYD"],"position_guidance":"High-conviction speculative position only — 2-3% max. JPMorgan $475 target (June 2026) reflects robotaxi/Optimus optionality. Do not chase; buy on 15-20%+ corrections.","volatility_note":"Highest volatility of mega-cap stocks. Options premium elevated — good for covered calls if holding. Avoid naked exposure."}}