{"id":"vol-term-structure","category":"volatility","title":"VIX Term Structure and Futures Curve","summary":"Contango vs backwardation in VIX futures as a regime stress indicator.","trigger":{"always":false,"sectors":[],"tickers":[],"regimes":["high_vol","trending_bear"]},"ttl_hours":24,"content":{"contango":{"definition":"VIX futures price > VIX spot — normal, calm market state","meaning":"Market expects vol to stay low or revert lower — risk-on signal","strategy":"Sell VIX spikes, operate normally, run premium selling strategies"},"backwardation":{"definition":"VIX futures price < VIX spot — stress, demand for near-term protection","meaning":"Market pricing in sustained high volatility — risk-off signal","strategy":"Do not sell premium; buy protective puts; reduce all position sizes; wait for contango return"},"signal":"Check front-month vs 3-month VIX futures spread. Negative spread (backwardation) = stay defensive.","verdict":"VIX term structure is a real-time stress indicator. Backwardation historically precedes sustained equity drawdowns. Any agent should check term structure before opening new short-premium positions."}}